EN-ROADS Climate Policy Simulator - 1.5°C Pathway
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1 Background |
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1 Background |
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| 1.1. | The EN-ROADS Simulator |
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| 1.1. | The EN-ROADS Simulator |
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The En-ROADs on-line climate policy simulation model (https://en-roads.climateinteractive.org/scenario.html?v=2.7.15) it a tool that can be used to estimate the impact of various policies on the expected temperature increase for 2100: "En-ROADS is a transparent, freely-available policy simulation model that provides policymakers, educators, businesses, the media, and the public with the ability to explore, for themselves, the likely consequences of energy, economic growth, land use, and other policies and uncertainties, with the goal of improving their understanding. The simulation, developed by Climate Interactive, VentanaSystems
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| 1.2. | Assumptions for The 1.5°C Pathway |
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| 1.2. | Assumptions for The 1.5°C Pathway |
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Since the EN-ROADS simulator shows that 1.5°C is reached (1) with a climate sensitivity of 3(which is likely low) and (2) with no emissions from natural feedbacks (which almost certainly cause significant additional warming), is not very useful in evaluating policy options as ALL policies must be implemented to the maximum extent possible (i.e., there are no "trade-offs"). In order to be useful the model would need to include both costs and significant more detail for each of the "indicators". For example, " Buildings and industry energy efficiency" improvements provides one of the largest contributions. But this can't be addressed with a single policy as there are dozens of individual improvements which need to be examined for cost, social acceptability, etc. (E.g., will Americans be willing swap out their gas furnaces more expensive electric alternatives?) A user can see the effect of changing values for the various model "inputs" on the temperature increase but 1.None of the "indicators" directly impact the "average citizen", so the message is that the government and industry are solely responsible for emission reduction and all of us can continue our consumption-based lifestyle with only minor "inconveniences". However, "maxing out" on "Methane and Other" requires huge societal and individual changes for meat, etc, and this is not indicated anywhere. 2.There is no mention of the societal changes that will be needed and the difficulty of implementing them 3.There is no mention of the associated costs (total costs by year, increase in gasoline prices, increase in home utility bills, increase in taxes, reduction of disposable income, costs to home owners/renters for energy efficiency improvements, dietary changes, etc.). We can "afford" to pay the necessary costs but will politicians be willing to raise (and commit) the necessary funds? That is an impossible question to answer without a more detailed analysis of the cost - we will likely to be willing to fund $100/year but not likely $5Trillion/year. 4.The user cannot determine the "carbon budget" for the scenario (needed for comparison to the IPCC reports)
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2 The EN-Roads climate simulator includes 16 "basic policies" |
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2 The EN-Roads climate simulator includes 16 "basic policies" |
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| 2.1. | Coal - Very highly taxed - $120/tce |
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| 2.1. | Coal - Very highly taxed - $120/tce |
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Discourage or encourage mining coal and burning it in power plants. Coal is the most harmful fossil fuel in terms of carbon emissions, as well as in air pollutants that cause severe health impacts. It is a dominant source of energy globally, however, because it is relatively cheap to mine and transport. 120 Coal (tax/subsidy) $/tce (very highly taxed) 2025 Coal tax/subsidy start year 2100 Coal tax/subsidy stop year 0 % Reduction in coal utilization percent 2025 % Reduction in coal utilization start year 2100 % Reduction in coal utilization stop year N Stop building new coal infrastructure 2025 Year to stop building new coal infrastructure 0 Coal plant accelerated retirement % 0 Coal carbon capture & storage (CCS) (tax/subsidy) $/kWh 0 Coal CCS R&D breakthrough cost reduction percent
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| 2.2. | Oil - Very highly taxed - $ 100/boe |
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| 2.2. | Oil - Very highly taxed - $ 100/boe |
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Discourage or encourage drilling, refining, and consuming oil for energy. Oil is a fossil fuel that is used widely in cars, ships, and planes; it is also used for industry, heating, and electricity. Access to oil has sparked major conflicts and oil spills can threaten ecosystems and water. 100 Oil (tax/subsidy) $/boe (very highly taxed) 2025 Oil tax/subsidy start year 2100 Oil tax/subsidy stop year 0 % Reduction in oil utilization percent 2025 % Reduction in oil utilization start year 2100 % Reduction in oil utilization stop year N Stop building new oil infrastructure 2025 Year to stop building new oil infrastructure
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| 2.3. | Natural Gas - Very highly taxed - 6.0$/Mcf |
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| 2.3. | Natural Gas - Very highly taxed - 6.0$/Mcf |
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Discourage or encourage drilling and burning natural gas for energy. Natural Gas is a fossil fuel that is used for electricity, heating, and industry. When burned, it releases carbon dioxide (although less than coal and oil) and, if leaked into the air, it contains high amounts of methane. Natural gas drilling uses large amounts of water and can cause contamination. 6.0 Natural Gas (tax/subsidy) $/Mcfvery highly taxed 2025 Natural Gas tax/subsidy start year 2100 Natural Gas tax/subsidy stop year 0 % Reduction in gas utilization percent 2025 % Reduction in gas utilization start year 2100 % Reduction in gas utilization stop year N Stop building new gas infrastructure 2025 Year to stop building new gas infrastructure 3 Methane leakage rate % 0 Gas carbon capture & storage (CCS) (tax/subsidy) $/kWh 0 Gas CCS R&D breakthrough cost reduction percent
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| 2.4. | Nuclear - Highly subsidized - -0.07$/kWh |
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| 2.4. | Nuclear - Highly subsidized - -0.07$/kWh |
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Encourage or discourage building nuclear power plants. Nuclear power production does not release carbon dioxide, but it produces waste that has to be managed for centuries. -0.07 Nuclear (tax/subsidy) $/kWh highly subsidized 2025 Nuclear tax/subsidy start year 2100 Nuclear tax/subsidy stop year 0 Nuclear R&D breakthrough cost reduction percent 2030 Nuclear breakthrough year
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| 2.5. | Renewables - Highly subsidized - -0.07$/kWh |
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| 2.5. | Renewables - Highly subsidized - -0.07$/kWh |
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Encourage or discourage building solar panels, geothermal, and wind turbines. Renewable energy includes wind, solar, geothermal, hydropower, and other technologies that produce energy with little to no carbon dioxide emissions or air pollution. Note that nuclear and bioenergy are considered separately. -0.07 Renewables (tax/subsidy) $/kWh highly subsidized 2025 Renewables tax/subsidy start year 2100 Renewables tax/subsidy stop year 0 Renewables R&D breakthrough cost reduction percent 2030 Renewables breakthrough year 0 Storage R&D breakthrough cost reduction percent 2030 Storage breakthrough year
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| 2.6. | New Technology - 2 huge New Technology breakthroughs |
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| 2.6. | New Technology - 2 huge New Technology breakthroughs |
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Discover a brand-new cheap source of electricity that does not emit greenhouse gases. Some speculate that such a breakthrough could be nuclear fusion or thorium-based nuclear fission, however, there are unknown risks associated with any new energy supply. Decide when the breakthrough occurs, its initial cost relative to coal, and how long the delays in commercialization and scale up would be. 2 Number of huge New Technology breakthroughs 2100 New Technology breakthrough year 10 New Technology time to commercialize (years) 2 Initial cost relative to coal
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| 2.7. | Carbon price - Very high - $250/ton after 10 years |
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| 2.7. | Carbon price - Very high - $250/ton after 10 years |
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Set a global carbon price that makes coal, oil, and gas more expensive depending on how much carbon dioxide they release. Energy producers frequently pass additional costs to their customers, so policy must be designed to minimize the impacts on the poorest. 250 Carbon Price $/ton very high 2025 Year carbon price starts to phase in 10 Years to achieve initial carbon price - years 0 Final carbon price (adjust "Year to start..." below) $/ton CO2 2100 Year to start achieving final carbon price 10 Years to achieve final carbon price -years 100 Emissions performance standard - ton CO2/TJ 2025 Emissions performance standard start year
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| 2.8. | Transport Energy Efficiency - Highly increased - 4.9%/year |
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| 2.8. | Transport Energy Efficiency - Highly increased - 4.9%/year |
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Increase or decrease the energy efficiency of vehicles, shipping, air travel, and transportation systems. Energy efficiency includes things like hybrid cars, expanded public transport, and ways that people can get around using less energy. Adopting more energy efficient practices can improve public health and save money. 4.9 Transport energy efficiency - percent/year highly increased 2025 Start year
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| 2.9. | Transport Electrification Share of final energy - Increases 2%/year |
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| 2.9. | Transport Electrification Share of final energy - Increases 2%/year |
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Increase or decrease purchases of new electric cars, trucks, buses, trains, and ships. Using electric motors for transport helps reduce greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution if the electricity is from low carbon sources like solar and wind. -0.2 Transport electrification percent/year 2025 Year electrification of transport accelerates
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| 2.10. | Buildings and Industry Energy Efficiency - Increases 5%/year |
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| 2.10. | Buildings and Industry Energy Efficiency - Increases 5%/year |
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Increase or decrease the energy efficiency of buildings, appliances, and other machines. Energy efficiency includes things like building well-insulated homes and reducing the amount of energy factories use. Energy efficient practices can save money through reduced energy needs as well as improve the health of people in those buildings. 5 Buildings and industry energy efficiency percent/year 2025 Start year 5 Rate of buildings and industry retrofitting percent/year 2025 Start year
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| 2.11. | Buildings and Industry Electrification - Highly incentivized - - increases 5%/year |
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| 2.11. | Buildings and Industry Electrification - Highly incentivized - - increases 5%/year |
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Increase or decrease the use of electricity, instead of fuels like oil or gas, in buildings, appliances, heating systems, and other machines. Using electric motors only helps reduce emissions and improve air quality if the electricity is from low carbon sources like solar and wind. 5 Electrification of buildings and industry percent/year highly incentivized 2025 Year electrification of buildings and industry accelerates
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| 2.12. | Population - Low growth - 1.3%/year |
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| 2.12. | Population - Low growth - 1.3%/year |
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Assume higher or lower population growth. While there is an expected trajectory of population growth, there are steps like women?s education and access to family planning that have been shown to accelerate shifts to smaller families, which would slow population growth. Population (UN Scenario range) 1.3 low growth
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| 2.13. | Population - High growth (2.5%/year) |
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| 2.14. | Economic Growth - Low - 1.7 percent/year |
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| 2.14. | Economic Growth - Low - 1.7 percent/year |
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Assume higher or lower growth in goods produced and services provided. Economic Growth is measured in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per person and is a key driver in energy consumption. Alternatives exist to meeting people?s needs through economic frameworks not based on constant GDP growth. Economic growth (GDP per person) 1.7 percent/year Low Growth
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| 2.15. | Economic Growth - High Growth -3.7 percent/year |
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| 2.16. | Deforestation - Highly reduced - reduction 10%/year |
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| 2.16. | Deforestation - Highly reduced - reduction 10%/year |
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Decrease or increase the loss of forests for agricultural and wood product uses. Deforestation often entails burning and removing forests to clear land for crops like soybeans, corn, or palm oil. Forest protection efforts increase biodiversity and can support community resilience. -10 Deforestation (reduce/increase) percent/year highly reduced 2025 Deforestation start year
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| 2.17. | Methane & Other Gases - Highly reduced |
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| 2.17. | Methane & Other Gases - Highly reduced |
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Decrease or increase greenhouse gas emissions from methane, nitrous oxide, and the f-gases. Methane is released from sources like cows, agriculture, natural gas drilling, and waste. Nitrous oxide comes from fertilizers. The f-gases, includes HFCs, PFCs, and others that are used in industry and consumer goods like air conditioners. -100 % Methane and other gases (reduce/increase) highly reduced - 100% Individual Settings 0 Agricultural and waste emissions (CH₄ & N₂O) % 0 Energy and industry emissions (CH₄, N₂O, & F-gases) % 2025 Other greenhouse gases start year
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| 2.18. | Afforestation - High growth - 100% of available |
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| 2.18. | Afforestation - High growth - 100% of available |
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Plant new forests and restore old forests. As trees grow, they draw carbon out of the air, which reduces the concentration of carbon dioxide. However, without care, large-scale afforestation can compromise biodiversity and historical land rights. 100 % Percent available land for afforestation high growth 2025 Afforestation start year 10 Time to secure land for afforestation years 30 Afforestation planting time years
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| 2.19. | Technological Carbon Removal - High growth - 100% of maximum potential |
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| 2.19. | Technological Carbon Removal - High growth - 100% of maximum potential |
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Pull carbon dioxide out of the air with new technologies that enhance natural removals or manually sequester and store carbon. Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies include: direct air capture, bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), biochar, and others (but not including coal or gas CCS). CDR is not yet used widely, and most approaches face significant barriers to deployment. 100 %Technological carbon removal (% of max potential) high growth Individual Setti
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